The ‘cobra effect’ refers to an unintended consequence that arises from a measure becoming a target. The term originates from an incident in British-ruled India, where a bounty for dead cobras led people to breed cobras to claim the reward. When the government ended the bounty, the breeders released the snakes, increasing the wild cobra population. This story illustrates Goodhart’s Law: ‘When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.’
When measures drive behaviours, these behaviours may not align with the intended goals. In organisations, for instance, adopting measures like Scrum Team Velocity can lead to gaming the system. Teams may inflate estimates or present incomplete work as complete to achieve higher Velocity scores, misleading stakeholders and undermining trust. Thus, while measures are necessary, they must be carefully managed to avoid negative consequences.
